Staying Ahead: Policy Shifts, Economic Uncertainty, and the Future of Workforce Development

The Canadian economy is bracing for a wave of uncertainty, with economic forecasts pointing to slow growth, job losses, and shifting government priorities. Trade tensions and tariffs could shrink GDP by up to 5%, bringing economic conditions similar to the 2008-09 financial crisis. In Ontario and Quebec—where 80% of this economic shock will hit—manufacturing, transportation, and export-dependent industries will feel the deepest impacts. 

At Skills for Change (SfC), we are closely monitoring these shifts and preparing to meet the needs of workers, employers, and communities. As economic conditions evolve, so too must our sector. Now more than ever, workforce development organizations need to be agile, data-driven, and aligned with policy changes to remain relevant and impactful. 

What’s Changing? 

1. Rising Job Losses & Demand for Workforce Support 
   Canada could see 150,000 to 350,000 job losses, particularly in at-risk sectors like manufacturing and transportation. As layoffs increase, more workers will need reskilling, career transition services, and job placement support. Organizations like SfC must scale up workforce programs and ensure alignment with high-demand sectors like tech, AI, healthcare, and renewable energy. 

2. New Government Investments in Workforce Training 

   The Ontario government has pledged a $2.5 billion expansion of the Skills Development Fund to train one million workers for skilled trades jobs. Other investments include: 

   • $70 billion in new investments attracted across the manufacturing, life sciences and technology sectors, including $45 billion in new investments in the first electric vehicle and battery plants in Canada, creating thousands of jobs. 

   • Investing more than $200 billion in our plan to build roads, highways, transit and other infrastructure projects. 

These shifts indicate a clear policy trend: prioritizing skilled trades, apprenticeships, and STEM education. Our sector must align with these investments to ensure sustainable funding and program growth. 

1. The Changing Role of Employer & Industry Partnerships 
   With trade disruptions impacting hiring in traditional industries, employers in growth sectors like AI, tech, and renewable energy will drive demand for new workforce solutions. SfC is already pivoting towards employer-led training models, ensuring our programs directly match labor market needs. 

2. Increased Vulnerability for Immigrant & Refugee Workers 
   Immigrants and refugees are disproportionately represented in low-wage, high-risk sectors and will be among the hardest hit by job losses. SfC is advocating for targeted support programs to ensure newcomers can access employment services, upskilling opportunities, and stronger workplace protections. 

How Can the Sector Stay Ahead? 

To remain relevant and impactful, workforce development organizations must focus on adaptability, innovation, and strategic alignment with labor market needs. Some key areas for the sector to consider include: 

• Strengthening Digital & AI Upskilling Programs – As automation and AI continue to reshape industries, integrating digital skills training into workforce programs can help job seekers remain competitive. 

• Building Resilient Employer Partnerships – Collaborating with employers in high-demand sectors ensures workforce programming remains aligned with emerging job opportunities. 

• Enhancing Policy & Government Engagement – Workforce organizations must take an active role in policy discussions, ensuring that government funding and training initiatives reflect the needs of diverse job seekers. 

• Expanding Training for High-Growth Industries – With governments prioritizing skilled trades, infrastructure, and energy-related careers, workforce development programs should align with sectors that are projected to see sustained growth and investment. 

What’s Next? 

As we navigate economic uncertainty, staying ahead of policy shifts and labour market changes will be critical for workforce development organizations. Those that embrace data-driven decision-making, employer collaboration, and policy alignment will be best positioned to support workers in securing stable, long-term employment. 

At a time when economic risks are growing, the sector has an opportunity to step up as a key driver of workforce transformation. By working together—government, employers, and workforce organizations—we can help build a more resilient, inclusive, and future-ready labour market.